8th February 2020, by Sam Priestman and Jake Watkin.
The current Coronavirus epidemic has shed light on how black swan events in China affect systematic responses from the authorities, the market and society. These responses have triggered not only reactive measures, but active preparations for future systematic changes.
Our team’s most recent discussions have ranged from biosecurity and drug discovery for future diseases, to monetary policy initiatives to protect equity and fixed income markets. There is consideration of new models to anticipate and mitigate force majeure and stem consequential nationwide and global effect upon other commodities - as seen with copper early in the week, and potentially LNG imminently.
This forced evolution is an opportunity, with the implemention of innovative ideas
accelerating; not least the Government’s current focus on best practices, standard operating procedures, systems and digital transformation. These focused priorities will further stimulate the burgeoning healthcare, food & agricultural and Industry 4.0 segments.
The domestic markets will facilitate a snowball effect in the way that only a centralised economy can (as opposed to entropic). For the workforce, Coronavirus is essentially history’s largest social experiment, and the medium-term result should be a jump in efficiency and productivity driven by broadly incentivised digital transformation. As for society: quarantine and radical anti-contagion measures have provoked themes of survival and fear of the unknown. This is driving urgency for preventive solutions and improved management systems.
We anticipate increased attention to technologies delivering ‘clean’, ‘safe’, ‘transparent’, ‘evidence-based’ and ‘networked’ solutions. These are all themes which technological innovation is precisely positioned to improve. In the aftermath of Coronavirus, collaborative roadmaps to a clean, connected and advanced society will emerge. Founded upon fresh and widespread acceptance of these necessities – China will be fundamentally stronger and more resistant to future black swan events.
For 8 Hours, the edge remains in our capability to pinpoint China market demand for technology solutions. Whilst this is largely a commercial activity, the recent events have opened many eyes to the importance of having centralised protocols, systems and standards in place to address black swan events.
Moreover, this is not only a China issue. From multiple perspectives, the Coronavirus can be viewed as a catalyst exposing the fragility of the global economic system. We are optimistic that this strengthens the 8 Hours position to contribute to the building of stronger foundations and more innovative solutions for a better, Sino-Global future.
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